Fire & Explosion
Risk Analysis (FERA)
FERA underpins facility siting, occupied-building protection, F&G mapping, fireproofing scope, emergency response, and quantitative escalation logic. The discipline has shifted decisively over the last decade from empirical TNT-equivalent and Multi-Energy methods to 3D CFD-class modelling (FLACS, KFX, Ansys Fluent) that captures real congestion, confinement, and ventilation — the difference being orders of magnitude in overpressure prediction for typical petrochemical layouts. The Buncefield 2005 event, where overpressures exceeded all prior modelling expectations, drove a regulator-led move toward CFD for high-consequence cases. Modern FERA work integrates leak frequency from OGP 434 / FRED, ignition probability per Cox-Lees with congestion uplift, BLEVE consequence per Roberts / CCPS, jet-fire radiation per Chamberlain / Cook-Cullis, and Bow-Tie escalation pathways for domino assessment. The hardest decisions remain the boundary conditions: which scenarios merit CFD vs phenomenological modelling, and how to communicate uncertainty to non-technical decision-makers.
