Skip to content
Hazard Studies & Risk Assessment

Toxic Release Assessment and Dispersion Modelling

Toxic dispersion with AEGL, ERPG and SLOT receptor analysis

What this study delivers

Toxic Release Assessment
and Dispersion Modelling

Toxic release modelling determines whether a chlorine leak, an ammonia rupture, or a hydrogen fluoride scenario reaches AEGL 2, which is disabling, or AEGL 3, which is life threatening, at your fenceline, your occupied buildings, and the community receptors around your site. It is the foundation for EPA RMP Off Site Consequence Analysis, for the toxic risk demonstration in a COMAH safety case, for Indian MoEFCC hazard analysis, and for emergency response zone definition. The discipline rests on accurate source term derivation covering orifice, pipe, and vessel rupture per CCPS and the Yellow Book, two phase flashing for refrigerated liquefied gases, and aerosol fraction for HF and amines, on atmospheric dispersion modelling that is Gaussian for neutral and passive releases and dense gas to Britter McQuaid for chlorine, HF, ammonia, and propylene oxide, and on toxic load calculation as concentration to the power n multiplied by time per the HSE SLOT and SLOD methodology. Modern practice also integrates current cloud and dense gas modules, CFD validation for complex topography or congestion by CFD, and the lessons from the methyl mercaptan, methyl isocyanate, and hydrogen fluoride incidents that drove the inclusion of toxic release as an API RP 754 Tier 1 indicator. Our team brings all of this to bear on the credible releases at your facility.

Toxic Release Assessment and Dispersion Modelling Overview
Study execution

How the study is executed

We open at toxic inventory & source term build and close at risk reduction & erp integration, and each stage hands the next one a record rather than a summary of it.

Toxic Inventory & Source Term Build

Compile toxic inventory per unit / vessel / pipeline with concentration, quantity, temperature, pressure, characterise source terms per release scenario, hole size (10mm, 25mm, 100mm, FBR per CCPS / API 581), release height, momentum, buoyancy.

Release Scenario Catalogue

Catalogue release scenarios per CCPS / API 581 / COMAH, instantaneous (catastrophic vessel rupture), continuous (leak, flange failure), pulsed (relief actuation), specify weather (Pasquill stability A F), wind speed (typical 2 to 10 m/s).

Dispersion Modelling (Gaussian / CFD)

Model toxic dispersion per Pasquill Gifford Gaussian for far field, dense gas method for heavy gases and CFD for congested geometry, align with EPA RMP / CCPS / COMAH guidance.

Toxic Endpoint Application

Apply toxic endpoints, AEGL 1/2/3 (Acute Exposure Guideline Levels), ERPG 1/2/3 (Emergency Response Planning Guidelines), IDLH (NIOSH), TEEL 1/2/3 (Protective Action Criteria), align with EPA / OSHA / DOE jurisdictional endpoints.

Risk Integration & F N Curve

Integrate toxic risk into QRA, calculate IRPA, F N curve, PLL, location specific individual risk, compare against tolerability criteria per UK HSE R2P2 / Dutch / Singaporean / Indian, align with corporate risk tolerability matrix.

Risk Reduction & ERP Integration

Recommend risk reduction measures, inventory reduction (ISD), detection (toxic gas), scrubbing / abatement, building isolation, evacuation distance, integrate with ERP scenario set and toxic refuge / shelter in place design.

Toxic Release Assessment and Dispersion Modelling Scope
Study scope

What the study covers in full

Toxic inventory mapping with the Appendix A regulated chemicals under RMP and site specific additions
Source term modelling covering orifice, pipe, and catastrophic rupture, two phase flashing, and aerosol fraction
Pasquill Gifford stability classification with sensitivity on the D5 and F2 worst case per RMP
Dense gas dispersion modelling to Britter McQuaid for chlorine, ammonia, HF, and propylene oxide
Passive and Gaussian dispersion for neutral releases above ambient density
Toxic load calculation as concentration to the power n multiplied by time per the HSE SLOT Dangerous Toxic Load and SLOD methodology
AEGL 1, 2, and 3 receptor analysis with 10 minute, 30 minute, 1 hour, 4 hour, and 8 hour exposure binning
ERPG 1, 2, and 3 and IDLH benchmarking for emergency response design
EPA RMP worst case at catastrophic release, F2, and 1.5 metres per second alongside alternative case scenario sets
CFD validation for complex topography, building wake, and congestion
Why it matters

Outcomes of Toxic Release Assessment and Dispersion Modelling

Toxic Release Consequence Accuracy
  • We quantify AEGL 2 and AEGL 3 reach for credible releases across your fenceline and community
  • We surface inventory reduction opportunities ahead of any regulatory imposition
  • We drive toxic gas detector siting and ESD response design
  • We anchor a realistic shelter in place and evacuation strategy
EPA RMP and COMAH Toxic Zone Defence
  • We produce EPA RMP Subpart C Off Site Consequence Analysis that holds up under inspection
  • We withstand COMAH and Seveso III competent authority toxic risk examination
  • We satisfy India MoEFCC EIA and PESO hazard analysis
  • We provide UK HSE SLOT and SLOD compliant land use planning evidence
Operational Zone and Control Clarity
  • We drive toxic gas detector grid design for chlorine, ammonia, HF, and hydrogen sulphide
  • We support realistic mutual aid and emergency response zones
  • We identify critical release inventories that merit inherently safer design substitution
  • We inform operator training scenarios for toxic event response
Toxic Incident Liability and Cost Reduction
  • We reduce inventory carrying cost through prioritised reduction
  • We help you pre empt EPA RMP enforcement, currently 66,633 dollars per violation per day
  • We cut community impact mitigation cost through targeted reduction
  • We improve underwriter pricing on toxic handling assets
Standards & references

Codes & standards we work to

EPA 40 CFR 68 (RMP) Subpart C OCAEPA RMP*Comp SoftwareAEGL 1, 2, and 3 (NAS, 2024 review)ERPG (AIHA, annual)IDLH (NIOSH)HSE SLOT and SLOD methodologyAPI RP 521 Sec. 6 (toxic relief)CCPS Guidelines for Vapor Cloud Dispersion ModelsIntegral consequence modelling practiceYellow Book (TNO CPR 14E)MSIHC Rules 1989 (India)Factories Act 1948 Section 41B (India)EPA RMPTAB Toxic Endpoints (AEGL, ERPG, IDLH)
When to engage

Triggers that signal the need

EPA RMP five year resubmission cycleNew regulated toxic chemical introductionInventory increase crossing the RMP thresholdCommunity concern or off site complaintCOMAH or Seveso safety case revalidationPost incident release modelling reviewDetector grid design for a new or modified facilityALARP demonstration on toxic inventory
Industries served

Where Toxic Release Assessment and Dispersion Modelling applies

Oil & Gas, Upstream
UpstreamOffshoreFPSO
Refineries & Petrochemicals
RefiningPetrochemical
LNG & Gas Processing
LNGCryogenic
Specialty Chemicals
ReactiveBatch
Power Generation
PowerHydrogen
Pharma & Food
PharmaFood & Bev
What we deliver

Tangible deliverables

  • Toxic release assessment report with scenario register
  • Source term calculation pack for each release event
  • Dispersion modelling output with the correlation and validity range stated
  • Concentration and toxic load contour plots
  • AEGL, ERPG, and SLOT receptor analysis
  • EPA RMP OCA documentation in RMP*Comp format
  • Emergency response zone maps with concentration time profiles
  • Inventory reduction opportunity register
  • CFD validation where applicable
Get Started

Send us the scope

We will scope Toxic Release Assessment and Dispersion Modelling against your site and come back with what it would take. Send us the unit, the P&ID revision it sits at and the inventory it holds.