Resilience of Strategy Under Different Climate Scenarios (including 2°C and 1.5°C)
We help you describe how resilient your strategy is under different climate scenarios, including the 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios
What this element is and why it matters
TCFD Strategy Disclosure (c) asks your organisation to describe how resilient your strategy is under different climate scenarios. The minimum is a 2°C scenario, and ideally a 1.5°C pathway aligned with the SBTi and the Paris Agreement, drawing on the NGFS, IEA Net Zero and IPCC scenarios. This is the most analytically demanding of all the TCFD disclosures and our team carries the heavy lifting with you.
Individual significance for organisations
Disclosure S c is what separates organisations that take climate disclosure seriously from those that merely tick the box. Substantive scenario analysis with specific business implications signals to investors that climate is genuinely woven into your strategy.
Contribution to Climate Risk and TCFD and ISSB S2 Aligned Disclosure
Disclosure S c is the apex of the Strategy pillar. It tests whether your strategy holds up under stress scenarios and informs your strategic adjustments, your reallocation of capital and your risk management priorities.
What compliant execution looks like
How we implement this element
A focused six step methodology calibrated to deliver resilience of strategy under different climate scenarios (including 2°c and 1.5°c) as a working capability rather than a documented compliance artefact.
We select scenarios per TCFD guidance, starting from the 2°C minimum and adding a 1.5°C pathway and a Hot House pathway above 4°C for sensitivity, drawing on NGFS, IEA or IPCC sources.
We calibrate to your corporate strategic planning, typically over five, ten and twenty years, and document the assumptions on technology, policy and market.
We model the financial and operational impact under each scenario across revenue, cost, capital spend, asset value and supply chain, and integrate it with your financial planning tools.
For each scenario we assess how resilient your strategy is, identify the breakpoints and document the hedging and adaptation strategies.
We translate the scenario findings into strategic adjustments covering portfolio choices, research priorities, M and A criteria and the reallocation of capital.
We author S c to TCFD with the scenario narrative, the quantitative outputs and the strategic implications, all aligned with IFRS S2.
Element implementation flow chart
A decision gated workflow that shows the actual sequence of activities from initiation through steady state operation, with key decision points highlighted.
What we produce
- A scenario analysis pack with quantitative outputs
- A strategy resilience assessment for each scenario
- Disclosure S c content to TCFD
- A scenario assumptions log covering the NGFS, IEA NZE and IPCC AR6 variables
- A register of strategy breakpoints and trigger thresholds
- A strategic implications memo for board review
Where execution fails
- A qualitative scenario discussion with no quantitative modelling behind it
- A single scenario, typically 2°C, with no sensitivity range around it
- Findings that are never translated into strategic decisions
- A stale scenario vintage where the NGFS and IEA inputs are never refreshed
Codes this element is built on
Explore related elements in this framework
Climate Risk and TCFD and ISSB S2 Aligned Disclosure full element index
Talk to us about implementing Resilience of Strategy Under Different Climate Scenarios (including 2°C and 1.5°C)
We can scope this element implementation against your facility, regulatory context, and existing management system maturity, then integrate it with the other Climate Risk and TCFD and ISSB S2 Aligned Disclosure elements you already operate.